Most 2027 budgets will be locked within the next few weeks, and the line for CDL labor deserves more than a flat percentage bump. Compensation is moving again, fewer candidates can legally take the wheel, and every empty truck costs more than it did twelve months ago.
Wage Pressure Is Building Again
Through 2024 and 2025, carriers held compensation down while freight stayed soft. The American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) reported in July 2026 that average operating costs hit a record $2.336 per mile in 2025, while pay for people behind the wheel grew more slowly than inflation for the second straight year.1 Benefits were another story, climbing 6.6%.
That restraint is fading. Transport Topics, citing a second-quarter industry report, found that 26% of carriers had increased compensation in 2026, with fleets such as Crete Carrier and Melton Truck Lines adding between 1 and 8 cents per mile.2 In September, Anderson Trucking Service lifted its company flatbed base from 60 to 70 cents per mile, a 16.7% jump, and Roehl Transport announced its second raise of 2026.3
Offers that matched the market in 2025 may trail it badly by mid-2027. Leave room for at least one midyear adjustment, along with higher sign-on, referral, and detention spending.
Line Items That Belong in the Labor Budget
A single wage assumption hides too much. Breaking the forecast into separate pieces makes it easier to defend with leadership and adjust later.
- Base rate increases for current company operators, timed to when competitors typically move
- Sign-on, referral, and retention bonuses for hard-to-fill lanes
- Benefits growth, which outpaced wages in ATRI’s latest data
- Recruiting, screening, and onboarding expenses per hire
- A reserve for contract coverage during peaks, leaves, and unexpected vacancies
The Eligible Pool Keeps Shrinking
Money solves only part of the problem. Even operations willing to spend more are competing for a smaller group of qualified applicants.
FMCSA’s non-domiciled CDL rule took effect in March 2026, and the agency estimates roughly 194,000 current holders could exit the freight market as those licenses expire or are revoked. By May, states had already pulled more than 28,000.4 Stricter English proficiency enforcement and the Clearinghouse downgrade rule are trimming supply further, a shift we covered in how the Clearinghouse rule is quietly shrinking the available workforce.
For planning purposes, assume time-to-fill will run longer and screening will disqualify more applicants than it did in 2024. Each open seat carries a daily price in missed loads, overtime, and idle equipment. ATRI found that carriers left about 10% of their trucks unseated on average in 2025.1
How to Balance Core Drivers and Contract Coverage
A sound budget separates the work you can predict from the work you can’t.
1. Staff Your Baseline with a Dedicated Team
Start with the lowest weekly volume you expect to run, even in your slowest stretch. Those lanes justify full-time company hires, competitive packages, and the retention investments that keep good operators in your seats. Turnover in this group is the most expensive kind, as we explained in what losing one CDL driver really costs fleets, so protect it first.
2. Cover Peaks and Gaps with Flexible Talent
Seasonal surges, new customer launches, vacations, and leaves are easier to absorb with qualified contract professionals than with permanent headcount you would carry through slow months. Contract help also serves as a bridge while you recruit for hard-to-fill roles, and it gives you a chance to see someone run your freight before offering a permanent seat.
3. Compare Both Sides Honestly
Weigh the fully loaded expense of a company hire, including recruiting, onboarding, benefits, and idle days, against the hourly or daily rate for outside support. Many fleets find a blended model costs less overall, even when the contract rate looks higher on paper.
4. Revisit the Mix Every Quarter
An adviser at J.J. Keller told Transport Topics that freight levels and capacity late this year will shape how momentum carries into 2027.2 Set quarterly checkpoints so you can shift the ratio as volume changes instead of waiting for the next annual budget cycle.
Build a Steadier 2027 With GoDrivers360
GoDrivers360 places screened CDL talent whose qualification documents are collected and verified before the first assignment. We help carriers keep a stable core in place and add coverage the moment demand calls for it.
Don’t build next season’s labor line on old assumptions. Talk to GoDrivers360 about a coverage plan that keeps your trucks moving through 2027.
References
- American Transportation Research Institute, “New ATRI Report Details Accelerating Costs and Low Profitability Despite Cuts,” July 15, 2026, truckingresearch.org/2026/07/new-atri-report-details-accelerating-costs-and-low-profitability-despite-cuts
- Connor D. Wolf, “Driver Pay Pressure Rises as Capacity Declines,” Transport Topics, August 14, 2026, ttnews.com/articles/driver-pay-pressure-rises
- “Nussbaum, Roehl Announce Second Driver Pay Increase This Year,” Heavy Duty Trucking, September 23, 2026, truckinginfo.com/news/nussbaum-roehl-announce-second-driver-pay-increase-this-year
- Noël Fletcher, “US States Have Revoked 28,000 Non-Domiciled CDLs,” Transport Topics, May 7, 2026, ttnews.com/articles/28000-non-domiciled-revoked